Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 83455.345190 88094.485981 92732.737578 97714.773593 102911.306903 108168.397524 113885.401080
2025-02-16 75137.898140 82192.437945 89444.885065 97447.798853 106020.752287 114918.439152 124840.832694
2025-02-23 69689.286380 78405.803510 87564.715453 97884.854219 109168.265951 121108.537308 134677.466846
2025-03-02 65270.354416 75198.574765 85823.905147 98006.607146 111552.916568 126117.231638 142923.488361
2025-03-09 62446.179500 73436.948692 85386.734830 99293.280144 114979.027211 132070.481915 152047.051712
2025-03-16 59056.507618 70788.786923 83732.771184 99003.751575 116454.965178 135702.280372 158460.195037
2025-03-23 57172.466929 69704.018918 83710.317435 100434.936896 119767.253755 141315.874796 167051.373067
2025-03-30 55203.438386 68391.048530 83311.622358 101330.029760 122380.856234 146075.854333 174637.344636
2025-04-06 53013.868156 66701.075921 82369.573166 101496.242978 124069.282892 149714.223945 180896.364882
2025-04-13 50900.118707 64998.798943 81320.544524 101450.245897 125436.190250 152925.635059 186625.102834
2025-04-20 49793.188199 64444.706295 81579.172061 102906.969436 128539.598721 158145.892753 194704.815191
2025-04-27 48755.127520 63918.485204 81824.110446 104308.277532 131551.443443 163250.193433 202661.282180
2025-05-04 47358.138742 62917.200456 81474.191904 104986.875551 133713.886386 167390.110537 209550.787281
2025-05-11 45699.519318 61531.942242 80605.168920 104990.541819 135031.473177 170510.539096 215233.805493
2025-05-18 44404.307664 60552.793812 80192.282553 105515.724515 136955.813138 174346.315315 221781.417376
2025-05-25 43005.880272 59390.138792 79504.415562 105658.018561 138377.663342 177555.472970 227569.074177
2025-06-01 42268.284202 59044.238694 79815.458392 107028.082834 141307.268182 182603.541561 235616.423845
2025-06-08 40805.712364 57707.973700 78827.595169 106721.005211 142115.741739 185032.926792 240452.947877
2025-06-15 40240.487267 57523.388040 79290.875358 108241.851384 145211.417583 190288.781661 248794.298130
2025-06-22 39458.081855 57022.510504 79323.018809 109192.842948 147578.629865 194644.976349 256042.397484
2025-06-29 38384.090758 56097.749515 78774.670109 109369.426330 148943.082950 197743.333059 261731.962231
2025-07-06 37267.386770 55080.912837 78074.581064 109320.562538 149997.286606 200440.809952 266921.057034
2025-07-13 36856.733508 55007.152827 78603.518466 110867.990233 153103.500948 205733.445133 275397.404793